MO.2.C || Transfer Towards Climate Neutrality – Scenarios, Options and Valuation

Behtke, Maurice; Rödger, Jan-Markus; Gauß, Philipp; Zierleyn, Fabian

The aviation industry is currently responsible for 2.5% of the global CO2Eq-emissions and this only for the in-flight phase. With an estimated global air traffic doubling every 20 years, the altitude level of emissions (Radiation Forcing Index) and the holistic value chain from the production of fuels and aircrafts to the end-of-life scenario, the future of air mobility needs radical changes for the better. Four main technological drivers have been identified, evolutionary and revolutionary, that will enable aviation emissions reductions. Evolutionary improvements include efficiency gains from newer engines and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), ideally produced from green energy, which can be used as drop-ins in conventional engines. New engine programs are under development and are expected to be introduced by 2025. SAFs are already in use but account for less than 1% of today’s total global fuel demand, so widespread deployment is not expected before 2030. Revolutionary innovations relate to electric and hydrogen-powered flights. While electric flights for commuter classes (less than 10 PAX and small distances) are close to deployment and launches are expected by 2023/2024, large-scale hydrogen flights, using either a fuel cell or a hydrogen turbine, are not expected until 2035. These technology drivers with their different energy sources rely on different production processes and therefore have individual environmental impacts. The presentation will give a qualitative and quantitative holistic analysis for defined use case scenarios and will cover pre-flight (fuel and aircraft production), in-flight and post-flight operations (maintenance, repair and overhaul – and end-of-life processes).