WE.1.C || Methodological Approaches to Assess Life Cycle Consequences

Szichta, Pia; Risse, Michael; Weber-Blaschke, Gabriele; Richter, Klaus

Its contribution to a bioeconomy and climate change mitigation will likely increase the demand for wood in the future. In this context, wood cascading represents a promising concept to increase the efficiency of wood utilization. However, increasing cascade use will change the utilization of the recovered wood. Despite intensive research on wood cascading systems, the induced consequences on market level remain unclear. Usually, market models are used to estimate the scale of corresponding shifts in quantity flows. However, existing market models are not sufficiently designed to derive the amount and type of waste timber to estimate possible material utilization. Therefore, a market model is developed to determine the future availability of recovered wood in Germany. The model is based on a distributed decay approach, considering sectoral lifetimes. Timber products entering the consumption are represented by a series of distinct products instead of a single pool. To calculate their annual decay, historical data for the domestic consumption of timber products is used. The model uses the distribution of the recovered timber distinguished by certain semi-finished goods within the sectors construction, furniture, packaging and other, e.g., poles. Preliminary results for the construction and others sector show an increasing availability of recovered timber from 5.5 to 7.4 and 0.43 to 0.35 mio. t for the period 2018 to 2050. Decreasing amounts were observed for the sectors packaging and others with 2.16 to 2.17 and 4.93 to 4.60 mio. t. By means of the results, it is possible to make estimates regarding the dimension and quality of the future recovered timber accompanying the potentials for the use as engineered wood products. Using the combination of the future availabilities of recovered timber and consequential LCA, the environmental impacts of wood cascading on market level can be determined.