MO.1.B || Transformation Towards Future Mobility

Lai, Celeste Yat-Yin; Björklund, Anna; Karakaya, Emrah

The Swedish government has set targets for a completely fossil-free transport sector in 2045. This calls for radical transformation of the aviation industry, which is currently nearly 100% reliant of fossil fuels. Aviation as a socio-technical system is difficult to transform, requiring innovation in many areas and with main constraints being sustainability aspects new and emerging fuels, high costs, long lifetimes linked to infrastructure and technology, business models, and consumer behavior and preferences. Socio-technical transitions are processes depicting systemic changes and societal transformations brought about by the introduction of radical innovations. Scholars in the field of transition research study the dynamics between the broad ranges of actors, technologies and institutions, seeking to understand in what ways radical changes can take place in order to fulfill the societal functions such as transportation in a more sustainable way. However, sustainability of transitions are often implicitly assumed by the transition scholars, leaving potential issues associated with technology upscaling, environmental burden shifting and second order effects induced by such socio-technical transitions uncontested. To address these overlooked issues, lifecycle assessment (LCA) is introduced to analyze sustainability primarily aiming to identify potential burden shifting and second order effects of transitions. This paper develops a theoretical framework to assess potential environmental performances of the future transition pathways by 1) determining the future scenarios using socio-technical scenarios techniques, 2) checking internal consistency of scenarios by applying cross-consistency assessment and 3) implementing the scenarios in prospective LCA models. The framework is illustrated through the case of Swedish aviation energy transformation.